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☆ Job gains expected again in March. Here are all the things to look for in Friday's report
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Job growth is expected to come in at 200,000 for the period, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. That will be just one of several key areas in focus when the report is released at 8:30 a.m. The job market's resilience has confounded many economists who spent the past two years searching for a jobs-led recession that never happened. Household employment, which counts individual workers rather than total jobs and is used to calculate the unemployment rate, has fallen by nearly 1 million since November. The survey is more volatile and uses a much smaller sample than the establishment count that yields the headline payrolls growth total.

Persons: Timothy Aeppel, nonfarm payrolls, Dow, Dan North, Goldman Sachs, Luke Tilley, Stocks Organizations: Labor Department, Allianz Trade, Wilmington Trust Locations: Oxnard , California, Wilmington

☆ European stocks head for mixed open as markets look ahead to Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Wilmington Trust chief economist Luke Tilley said Tuesday that he isn't expecting any big changes in the Federal Reserve's posture tomorrow, but that the central bank could keep laying the groundwork for rate cuts later this year. And what they need to start pivoting towards is sort of confirming the expectation of rate cuts more and more," Tilley said. The Wilmington Trust team expects the first rate cut from the Fed to come on May 1. The Fed could also point to international developments like the conflict in the Middle East as a potential reason for caution on inflation, Tilley said. I don't think that that would cause them to not cut, but they will definitely cite some of those risks," he said.

Persons: Luke Tilley, Tilley, — Jesse Pound Organizations: Wilmington Trust, Fed Locations: Wilmington

☆ The Fed is terrified Americans could get used to high inflation. It may already be happening.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Fed officials don’t expect inflation to reach 2% until 2026, according to their latest economic projections released in September. If there’s one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations. The keyword there is “timely.”Sticky inflation could possibly “un-anchor” inflation expectations or elicit a consistent deterioration in Americans’ perception on inflation. “The Fed really just wants people to not expect inflation will run at 4% forever.”So what’s kept inflation expectations in check this long? For individuals and married people filing separately, the new federal standard deduction will increase to $14,600, up from $13,850 this year.

Persons: we’ve, Raphael Bostic, “, ” Luke Tilley, ”, Jerome Powell, presser, Powell, Michelle Bowman, Tilley, ” Drew Matus, what’s, Matus, “ They’re, Jeanne Sahadi, Lisa Cook, Phillip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Investment Advisors, CNN, ”, New York Bankers Association, New York Fed, MetLife Investment Management, IRS, Tyson Foods, Depot, US Labor Department, National Federation of Independent Business, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Target, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, Walmart, National Association of Home Builders, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, Wilmington, Palm Beach , Florida

☆ Stocks week ahead: Here’s how America’s economy could begin to weaken
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-05 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The job market or spending? The spending argument: But there have been instances in which spending weakened before the job market. “I think it starts with the perception of the labor market,” Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, told CNN. The ticket-industry giant said it has sold a record 140 million tickets so far this year, up 17% year-over-year and has already surpassed the 121 million tickets sold in all of 2022. In the third quarter, Ticketmaster sales surged 57% to $833 million and 90 million fee-bearing tickets were sold in the period.

Persons: can’t, ” Shannon Seery, “ It’s, ” Seery, Luke Tilley, ” Tilley, Jerome Powell, ” Drew Matus, ”, Taylor Swift, Parija Kavilanz, Swifties, Taylor, Michael Rapino, Beyoncé, Harry Styles, Bunny, Jonas Brothers, Bruce Springsteen, Lisa Cook, Michael Barr, Jeffrey Schmid, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Ralph Lauren, Steve Madden, Phillip Jefferson, Raphael Bostic, Tom Barkin, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, CNN, Employers, Investment Advisors, Companies, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNN Wednesday, Federal, MetLife Investment Management, Ticketmaster, Ryanair, Goodyear, Fed, Reserve Bank of Australia, Uber, Occidental Petroleum, KKR, The Carlyle Group, US Commerce Department, Biogen, Warner Bros, Teva Pharma, The New York Times Company, Armour, SeaWorld, MGM Resorts, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Sony Group, Astrazeneca, Tapestry, News Corp, US Labor Department, Soho House, National Statistics, European Central Bank, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Wells, Wilmington, Lyft, Brookfield, Soho

☆ What to expect from today’s Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

That would be the second consecutive meeting the Fed keeps rates unchanged. But that doesn’t mean the Fed is done hiking rates. Still, hawkish Fed officials — those who back a more aggressive approach to addressing inflation — believe there’s more room to raise rates. Domestic spending has continued at a strong pace and the labor market remains tight,” Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said last month in Morocco. The strong economy will likely slowDespite the Fed’s 11 rate hikes since March 2022, the US economy has displayed remarkable resilience.

Persons: Jerome Powell, “, ” Powell, Michelle Bowman, ” Luke Tilley, Powell, Banks, ”, Nela Richardson Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, hawkish Fed, ”, Labor Department, Wilmington Trust, CNN Locations: Washington, New York, Morocco, Wilmington, Israel

☆ US third-quarter economic growth seen fastest in nearly 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While the anticipated robust growth pace notched last quarter is probably not sustainable, it would demonstrate the economy's resilience despite aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP likely increased at a 4.3% annualized rate last quarter, which would be the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2021. Others are not too concerned, noting the labor market continues to churn out jobs at a solid clip. Growth last quarter was also seen lifted by a smaller trade deficit, thanks to strong exports and increased inventory investment. But the labor dispute, which is costing auto makers millions of dollars per week, could weigh on growth in the fourth quarter.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Joe Biden's, Sal Guatieri, Luke Tilley, it's, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Brian Bethune, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Business, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, BMO Capital Markets, Consumer, Wilmington Trust, Labor, Labor Department, U.S, Treasury, Financial, Group's, BNP, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Brooklyn , New York City, U.S, Toronto, American, Wilmington, Philadelphia, New York

☆ Fed Chair Powell to deliver key speech Thursday. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the release of the Fed policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 20, 2023. The top monetary policymaker will speak at noon ET to the Economic Club of New York at a critical time for the U.S. economy. Inflation numbers have been improving lately, but Treasury yields have been surging, sending conflicting messages about where monetary policy might be headed. Markets largely expect the Fed to stay on hold with rates, but they will be looking to Powell for confirmation and clarification on how officials view both current conditions and longer-term trends. "Really, their ultimate goal is to keep financial conditions tight so inflation comes down," he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Luke Tilley, Tilley Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Economic, of New, Wilmington Trust Locations: Washington ,, of New York, U.S, Wilmington

☆ Here's what to expect from the Federal Reserve meeting Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Committee on Financial Services June 21, 2023 in Washington, D.C. Powell testified on the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report during the hearing. Win Mcnamee | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesDespite an improving inflation picture, the Federal Reserve is expected on Wednesday to approve what would be the 11th interest rate increase since March 2022. That would push the upper boundary of the federal funds rate to its highest level since January 2001. But apparently the folks at the Fed think they need one more at least." Likewise, Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at Globaldata.TSLombard, said a "dovish hike and talk of soft landings" at Wednesday's meeting would be a mistake for the Fed.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, they've, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, —, haven't, Luke Tilley, that'll, " Tilley, I'm, Andrew Hollenhorst, Steven Blitz Organizations: Federal, Financial, Getty, Federal Reserve, Investors, Open Market, Dow Jones, Investment Advisors, Citigroup Locations: WASHINGTON, DC, Washington ,, Central, —, Wilmington, U.S

☆ Instant View: US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. I think the Fed will raise rates again in June and then pause. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing."

☆ US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing." The other thing is shelter, a huge component of CPI and it came in a little bit weaker."

☆ Inflation is expected to have declined in December, but it may not be enough to stop the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

They also point to weaker-than-expected wage growth in December's jobs report, as well as other data that reflects lower inflation expectations. Inflation is rolling over, and the Fed is almost done raising interest rates," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. Rental market data shows a slowing in rates, but the CPI has not yet reflected it. "Everyone is familiar with the lag that it takes for the data to show up in the CPI," Tilley added.

☆ November’s strong jobs report pressures the Fed and could put December rally at risk
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Friday's jobs report showed the economy added 263,000 jobs in November, much more than the 200,000 expected by economists, according to Dow Jones. The Fed has raised interest rates six times since March, the last four at a pace of 75 basis points. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. The futures market continued to price expectations for a 50 basis point hike in December. Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said he expects to see a 50 basis point hike from the Fed.

☆ The president of a firm using AI technology to beat the S&P 500 over the last two years shares 8 stocks to buy that have outperformed during previous rate hike cycles
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Toggle President Giuseppe Sette shared eight stocks to buy to outperform the rate hiking cycle. Inflation may have slightly cooled last month, but that doesn't mean the Federal Reserve is planning to stop its rate hiking program anytime soon. With the US economy still in the middle of a rate hiking cycle, where's the best place for investors to park their money right now? "It doesn't look like this is a market you want to be holding in, getting back to the single stocks," Sette added. Top 8 stocks to outperform a rate hiking cycleUsing Toggle's methodology, Sette shared eight stocks that have outperformed during a rate hiking cycle, with the current market conditions mirroring the environments in which these stocks have previously succeeded.

☆ What to know as October inflation data looms - and the Federal Reserve's next move.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-over-year inflation for October is expected to have eased slightly to 7.9%, according to Bloomberg's median estimate, down from 8.2% September. But here's a tidbit I did not find reassuring: The annual inflation rate came in above forecasts in six of the last seven months. While it'd be a good sign if CPI comes in lower than September, that doesn't mean the economy is in the clear — far from it, actually. "If Core inflation comes in greater than 0.5%, the Fed will raise rates more and we would be reevaluating the probability of a recession, and probably raising it higher." The chief global strategist for JPMorgan's investing arm explained why the Fed will cause an unnecessary recession, even as inflation is fading away.

☆ Stocks week ahead: Get ready for earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-09 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

We’ll get a better sense this week when several top financial firms and consumer companies report third-quarter earnings. The robust greenback will hurt sales and profits for these firm’s international operations. “Bank balance sheets and capital positions both remain in solid shape,” said KBW analyst David Konrad in a bank earnings preview report. The US government will report the latest monthly reads on consumer prices and wholesale prices next week. The consumer price index, or CPI, is the one investors will be watching most closely.

☆ Stocks week ahead: Intel is the Dow's biggest loser
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-25 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Shares of Intel (INTC) are down more than 45% this year, making it the biggest dog of the Dow. Intel (INTC) is struggling despite well-publicized plans to build more plants in the United States and hire more at home. To be fair, Intel is not the only chip company that’s having a tough time this year. But longer-term, I think Intel will right the ship,” said Jeff Travis, portfolio manager of Oak Associates Funds. Travis does think that semiconductor stocks are still a good “secular growth industry” and that valuations are now attractive given how sharply the stocks have fallen.

☆ US consumer spending rose in August as gas prices fell
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-15 | by ( Martha C. White | Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

(CNN Business) Another month of falling gas prices gave Americans' wallets a bit of a reprieve in August. The continued decline in gas prices was reflected by a 4.2% dropfor the month on spending at gas stationsBacking out this volatile component, sales rose by 0.8% for the month. The retail report suggests that the tailwind of lower gas prices was a key factor helping Americans cope last month. "Gas prices are certainly a challenge for consumers. If we saw another spike in gas prices then we would expect to see weaker spending in a lot of these other retail sales categories."

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